Closing spread
CAR -2
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.028
- 42.1%Success rate40.2%
- +0.129EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.169
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- 39.2%Third-down rate33.4%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.65Points / drive1.72
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed+0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 34 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:32 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 10:18 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| NO | Q1 5:25 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–0 |
| CAR | Q1 3:42 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 6–0 |
| NO | Q1 1:41 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 12–0 |
| CAR | Q1 0:58 | 1 | 10 | Touchdown | 13–0 |
| NO | Q1 0:52 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–0 |
| CAR | Q2 14:50 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 20–0 |
| NO | Q2 12:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–0 |
| CAR | Q2 10:11 | 8 | 20 | Field goal | 20–0 |
| CAR | Q2 5:47 | 2 | 2 | Field goal | 20–0 |
| CAR | Q2 4:50 | 3 | 18 | Field goal | 23–0 |
| NO | Q2 3:00 | 3 | 33 | Touchdown | 23–0 |
| NO | Q2 2:00 | 5 | 30 | Touchdown | 23–7 |
| NO | Q2 1:38 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 23–7 |
| CAR | Q2 1:38 | 5 | 38 | Field goal | 23–7 |
| CAR | Q2 1:00 | 1 | 22 | Field goal | 23–7 |
| CAR | Q2 0:54 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 26–7 |
| NO | Q2 0:33 | 7 | 52 | Turnover | 26–7 |
| CAR | Q3 12:49 | 8 | 18 | Punt | 26–7 |
| NO | Q3 8:15 | 6 | 78 | Touchdown | 26–14 |
| CAR | Q3 6:33 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 26–14 |
| NO | Q3 3:00 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 26–14 |
| CAR | Q3 0:03 | 13 | 69 | Field goal | 29–14 |
| NO | Q4 7:31 | 5 | 10 | Turnover | 29–14 |
| CAR | Q4 6:09 | 7 | 25 | Field goal | 32–14 |
| NO | Q4 2:09 | 8 | 51 | Touchdown | 32–21 |
| CAR | Q4 0:39 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 32–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 22/29 | 294 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 36 | 122 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 20/40 | 251 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.06