Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.162EPA / play-0.240
- 50.0%Success rate35.2%
- +0.287EPA / dropback-0.283
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.177
- 10.7%Explosive rate6.8%
- 52.5%Third-down rate25.7%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 2.26Points / drive0.78
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.107EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 12:57 | 7 | 60 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 9:18 | 9 | 32 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 4:47 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CHI | Q1 1:19 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q2 11:22 | 9 | 65 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| CHI | Q2 5:39 | 4 | 16 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q2 3:56 | 4 | 58 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| CHI | Q2 2:23 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| MIN | Q2 0:22 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 14–17 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–17 |
| CHI | Q3 13:53 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–17 |
| MIN | Q3 12:15 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| CHI | Q3 11:41 | 3 | -10 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| MIN | Q3 10:26 | 16 | 56 | Missed field goal | 14–17 |
| CHI | Q3 2:06 | 13 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| MIN | Q4 10:23 | 8 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 14–24 |
| CHI | Q4 7:55 | 7 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 14–24 |
| MIN | Q4 3:41 | 5 | 46 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| CHI | Q4 2:01 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 14–24 |
| MIN | Q4 0:07 | 1 | -4 | End of half | 14–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 23/33 | 279 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onterrio Smith | 13 | 79 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 18/30 | 213 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Chad Hutchinson | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.18