Closing spread
NE -10.5
Total
47
Model margin
+5.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.099
- 43.2%Success rate46.5%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.228
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.3%
- 40.8%Third-down rate45.1%
- 53.2%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.40Points / drive2.15
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 10–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. NE are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 18/24 | 202 | 2 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 9/13 | 126 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 24 | 89 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/26 | 260 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 22 | 88 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.45