Closing spread
BUF -11
Total
38.5
Model margin
+9.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.147EPA / play-0.073
- 38.6%Success rate40.7%
- -0.067EPA / dropback-0.012
- -0.251EPA / rush-0.139
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- 29.2%Third-down rate35.8%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.18Points / drive1.71
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.002EPA / play allowed-0.135
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. BUF are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McCown | 8/20 | 62 | 1 | 2 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adimchinobe Echemandu | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| William Green | 11 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 12/27 | 100 | 1 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 1/2 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 27 | 105 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 48 | 48.0 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Smith | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burns | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.3%
Expected total
40.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.34
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.07