Closing spread
IND -10
Total
57
Model margin
+0.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.239EPA / play-0.022
- 53.8%Success rate41.4%
- +0.412EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.134
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- 44.4%Third-down rate38.7%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 2.73Points / drive1.44
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.033EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/33 | 298 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 28 | 104 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 16/21 | 167 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 23 | 128 | 5.6 | 1 |
| David Carr | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.84