Closing spread
IND -10
Total
57
Model margin
+0.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.239EPA / play-0.022
- 53.8%Success rate41.4%
- +0.412EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.134
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- 44.4%Third-down rate38.7%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 2.73Points / drive1.44
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.033EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 13:29 | 7 | 37 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 10:40 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:24 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q1 3:37 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 14–0 |
| IND | Q2 14:47 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q2 12:38 | 7 | 47 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| IND | Q2 8:26 | 10 | 49 | Punt | 14–7 |
| HOU | Q2 3:08 | 8 | 58 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| IND | Q2 0:37 | 4 | 22 | End of half | 14–7 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 55 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| HOU | Q3 11:36 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| IND | Q3 6:18 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 17–14 |
| HOU | Q3 2:09 | 9 | 26 | Punt | 17–14 |
| IND | Q4 12:29 | 10 | 59 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| HOU | Q4 7:38 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–14 |
| IND | Q4 5:33 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 23–14 |
| HOU | Q4 1:56 | 5 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 23–14 |
| IND | Q4 0:38 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/33 | 298 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 28 | 104 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 16/21 | 167 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 23 | 128 | 5.6 | 1 |
| David Carr | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.84