Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
36
Model margin
+8.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.097
- 37.7%Success rate38.1%
- -0.120EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.212EPA / rush-0.128
- 5.6%Explosive rate7.0%
- 33.2%Third-down rate34.7%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.10Points / drive1.19
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.068EPA / play allowed-0.081
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 18/34 | 191 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Hicks | 34 | 139 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Terry Jackson | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Ken Dorsey | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 26/44 | 307 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Josh Scobey | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.9%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.03