Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
36
Model margin
+8.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.097
- 37.7%Success rate38.1%
- -0.120EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.212EPA / rush-0.128
- 5.6%Explosive rate7.0%
- 33.2%Third-down rate34.7%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.10Points / drive1.19
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.068EPA / play allowed-0.081
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:29 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 11:55 | 6 | 7 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:48 | 10 | 59 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 4:41 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| ARI | Q2 13:36 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| SF | Q2 11:24 | 6 | 44 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| ARI | Q2 8:19 | 11 | 54 | Field goal | 21–3 |
| SF | Q2 3:15 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–3 |
| ARI | Q2 2:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–3 |
| SF | Q2 1:35 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 21–3 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 49 | Touchdown | 28–3 |
| ARI | Q3 9:57 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 28–3 |
| SF | Q3 8:15 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 28–3 |
| ARI | Q3 6:03 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 28–10 |
| SF | Q3 1:59 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 28–10 |
| ARI | Q3 1:01 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| SF | Q4 11:53 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 28–17 |
| ARI | Q4 7:52 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 28–17 |
| SF | Q4 6:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 28–17 |
| ARI | Q4 4:18 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 28–25 |
| SF | Q4 2:40 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 28–25 |
| ARI | Q4 2:16 | 4 | 16 | Field goal | 28–28 |
| SF | Q4 0:59 | 4 | 30 | End of half | 28–28 |
| SF | OT | 6 | 43 | Punt | 28–28 |
| ARI | OT | 3 | 4 | Punt | 28–28 |
| SF | OT | 5 | 36 | Field goal | 31–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 18/34 | 191 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Hicks | 34 | 139 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Terry Jackson | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Ken Dorsey | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 26/44 | 307 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Josh Scobey | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.9%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.03