2004 · Week 15

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Kyle Boller

10·20

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapColts
  • -0.113EPA / play+0.239
  • 38.4%Success rate53.8%
  • -0.127EPA / dropback+0.412
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.005
  • 7.6%Explosive rate11.3%
  • 35.0%Third-down rate44.4%
  • 51.3%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 1.22Points / drive2.73
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
  • -0.136EPA / play allowed+0.033

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Boller19/4021012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis201306.50
Chester Taylor7223.10
Jamel White166.00
Kyle Boller122.00

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning20/3324910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James22693.11
Peyton Manning2-2-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.35