Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play+0.239
- 38.4%Success rate53.8%
- -0.127EPA / dropback+0.412
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.005
- 7.6%Explosive rate11.3%
- 35.0%Third-down rate44.4%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.22Points / drive2.73
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.136EPA / play allowed+0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 65 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 11:17 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–3 |
| IND | Q1 9:21 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 7:18 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| IND | Q1 5:19 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 1:42 | 7 | 67 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| IND | Q2 13:04 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q2 10:06 | 10 | 45 | Punt | 3–3 |
| IND | Q2 4:08 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q2 3:21 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 3–3 |
| IND | Q2 1:23 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q2 0:51 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| IND | Q2 0:13 | 1 | 31 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| BAL | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–6 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–6 |
| IND | Q3 12:18 | 10 | 76 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| BAL | Q3 5:54 | 7 | 57 | Missed field goal | 3–13 |
| IND | Q3 2:24 | 5 | 31 | Touchdown | 3–20 |
| BAL | Q3 0:28 | 8 | 34 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| IND | Q4 12:50 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–20 |
| BAL | Q4 11:50 | 8 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 10–20 |
| IND | Q4 8:30 | 8 | 36 | Missed field goal | 10–20 |
| BAL | Q4 4:03 | 12 | 48 | Turnover | 10–20 |
| IND | Q4 0:59 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 19/40 | 210 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 20 | 130 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/33 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 22 | 69 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.35