Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.032
- 42.1%Success rate41.4%
- +0.129EPA / dropback-0.047
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.012
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.1%
- 39.2%Third-down rate36.1%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.65Points / drive1.69
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.024
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–22 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:44 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 11:42 | 1 | -4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 11:35 | 9 | 40 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 7:16 | 6 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 3:25 | 9 | 41 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q2 14:11 | 11 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q2 7:23 | 5 | 9 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 4:20 | 14 | 71 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| ATL | Q2 0:21 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 15 | 86 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q3 6:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–17 |
| ATL | Q3 5:13 | 6 | 49 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| CAR | Q3 2:47 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| ATL | Q3 2:09 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| CAR | Q3 1:15 | 9 | 97 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| ATL | Q4 12:21 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–24 |
| ATL | Q4 11:00 | 2 | -13 | Opp touchdown | 24–24 |
| ATL | Q4 10:09 | 6 | 29 | Turnover | 24–24 |
| CAR | Q4 7:34 | 7 | 82 | Touchdown | 31–24 |
| ATL | Q4 3:37 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 31–31 |
| CAR | Q4 1:37 | 4 | 11 | End of half | 31–31 |
| CAR | OT | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 31–31 |
| ATL | OT | 2 | 3 | Field goal | 31–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 24/35 | 340 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 24 | 61 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 11/28 | 154 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 28 | 134 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 68 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Jason Wright | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.11