Closing spread
NE -10
Total
44
Model margin
-1.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.099EPA / play-0.173
- 46.5%Success rate35.8%
- +0.228EPA / dropback-0.181
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.159
- 10.3%Explosive rate6.9%
- 45.1%Third-down rate34.6%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.15Points / drive0.97
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.054
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/29 | 171 | 3 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 26 | 121 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 22/35 | 198 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Travis Minor | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.83