2004 · Week 15 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
TB -7.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.072
- 40.2%Success rate42.6%
- +0.052EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.169EPA / rush-0.203
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- 33.4%Third-down rate37.9%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.72Points / drive1.25
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.6%
- +0.061EPA / play allowed-0.089
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TB | Q1 14:40 | 8 | 26 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 11:25 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q1 7:51 | 12 | 53 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 1:48 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 14:17 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 11:05 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 9:28 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 6:40 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 2:45 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 1:40 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 0:40 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–7 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 57 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| NO | Q3 10:33 | 3 | 8 | Opp touchdown | 7–14 |
| NO | Q3 8:57 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 7–14 |
| TB | Q3 4:52 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NO | Q3 3:22 | 6 | 61 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| TB | Q3 0:10 | 7 | 77 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| NO | Q4 11:17 | 8 | 39 | Missed field goal | 7–17 |
| TB | Q4 6:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–17 |
| NO | Q4 3:44 | 2 | 4 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| TB | Q4 3:33 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| NO | Q4 3:19 | 8 | 41 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| TB | Q4 0:32 | 2 | 13 | End of half | 21–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 14/21 | 169 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 25 | 89 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 13/22 | 118 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 24 | 131 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ian Smart | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.03