Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.028
- 41.4%Success rate40.2%
- -0.047EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.169
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- 36.1%Third-down rate33.4%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.69Points / drive1.72
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.024EPA / play allowed+0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 17/41 | 188 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 18 | 52 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| George Layne | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 12/24 | 227 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 29 | 128 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.19
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.24