Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.028
- 41.4%Success rate40.2%
- -0.047EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.169
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- 36.1%Third-down rate33.4%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.69Points / drive1.72
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.024EPA / play allowed+0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:04 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 11:16 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 10:29 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 9:27 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:50 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 6:50 | 3 | -1 | Safety | 0–2 |
| NO | Q1 6:00 | 11 | 51 | Field goal | 0–5 |
| ATL | Q1 0:11 | 4 | 60 | Field goal | 3–5 |
| NO | Q2 13:18 | 5 | 27 | Turnover | 3–5 |
| ATL | Q2 11:17 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 6–5 |
| NO | Q2 9:40 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 6–12 |
| ATL | Q2 3:25 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–12 |
| NO | Q2 2:08 | 6 | 43 | Turnover | 6–12 |
| ATL | Q2 0:43 | 5 | 23 | End of half | 6–12 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 6–19 |
| ATL | Q3 11:52 | 13 | 55 | Touchdown | 13–25 |
| NO | Q3 5:45 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 13–26 |
| ATL | Q3 5:32 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 13–26 |
| NO | Q3 1:00 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 13–26 |
| ATL | Q4 13:34 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 13–26 |
| NO | Q4 12:00 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 13–26 |
| ATL | Q4 8:49 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 13–26 |
| NO | Q4 7:43 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 13–26 |
| ATL | Q4 6:40 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 13–26 |
| NO | Q4 5:46 | 5 | 37 | Punt | 13–26 |
| ATL | Q4 3:15 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 13–26 |
| NO | Q4 2:13 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 13–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 17/41 | 188 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 18 | 52 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| George Layne | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 12/24 | 227 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 29 | 128 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.19
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.24