2004 · Week 16 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
TB -1.5
Total
39
Model margin
+1.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.072
- 42.1%Success rate42.6%
- +0.129EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.203
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- 39.2%Third-down rate37.9%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.65Points / drive1.25
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.6%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.089
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 19/24 | 214 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 33 | 127 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 30/41 | 321 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.45