Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
56
Model margin
+1.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.110EPA / play+0.162
- 46.2%Success rate50.0%
- +0.241EPA / dropback+0.287
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.097
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.7%
- 46.7%Third-down rate52.5%
- 66.5%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.02Points / drive2.26
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed+0.107
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 30/43 | 365 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 19 | 64 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 16/23 | 285 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 17 | 92 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
48.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77