Closing spread
JAX -6.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play-0.036
- 41.4%Success rate39.9%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.3%
- 38.7%Third-down rate36.7%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 1.44Points / drive1.27
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 33–16 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 55 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 8:33 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 6:12 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 4:31 | 3 | -14 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 2:46 | 9 | 40 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q2 12:20 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q2 9:24 | 5 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q2 6:46 | 8 | 43 | Punt | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q2 2:17 | 4 | 47 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q2 0:51 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q2 0:44 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q2 0:10 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q3 13:24 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q3 11:27 | 6 | 23 | Missed field goal | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q3 7:30 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q3 3:23 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q3 2:07 | 9 | 32 | Punt | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q4 11:36 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q4 10:36 | 10 | 50 | Missed field goal | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q4 4:04 | 4 | 17 | Opp touchdown | 21–0 |
| JAX | Q4 3:11 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 21–0 |
| HOU | Q4 2:39 | 6 | 17 | End of half | 21–0 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 14/20 | 139 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 30 | 150 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Wells | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| David Carr | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 6/14 | 35 | 0 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 4/7 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.79