Closing spread
PK
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.099EPA / play+0.040
- 46.5%Success rate45.5%
- +0.228EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.039EPA / rush+0.058
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- 45.1%Third-down rate42.9%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 2.15Points / drive1.86
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/32 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 29 | 89 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/36 | 252 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.10