Closing spread
HOU -10
Total
41
Model margin
+2.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.147EPA / play-0.022
- 38.6%Success rate41.4%
- -0.067EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.251EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- 29.2%Third-down rate38.7%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.18Points / drive1.44
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.002EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 20/29 | 228 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Suggs | 26 | 131 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Frisman Jackson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| William Green | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 15/25 | 114 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 17 | 103 | 6.1 | 1 |
| David Carr | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.77
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.59