Closing spread
HOU -10
Total
41
Model margin
+2.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.147EPA / play-0.022
- 38.6%Success rate41.4%
- -0.067EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.251EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- 29.2%Third-down rate38.7%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.18Points / drive1.44
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.002EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 12:38 | 4 | 53 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 9:51 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| CLE | Q1 4:48 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q1 2:40 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CLE | Q1 1:02 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| HOU | Q2 11:28 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 6–7 |
| CLE | Q2 7:40 | 10 | 64 | Field goal | 9–7 |
| HOU | Q2 2:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 9–7 |
| CLE | Q2 1:09 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 9–7 |
| HOU | Q2 0:42 | 8 | 4 | End of half | 9–7 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 9–7 |
| HOU | Q3 14:52 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 9–7 |
| CLE | Q3 12:26 | 12 | 95 | Touchdown | 16–7 |
| HOU | Q3 5:24 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 16–7 |
| CLE | Q3 2:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 16–7 |
| CLE | Q3 0:39 | 3 | 10 | Field goal | 19–7 |
| HOU | Q4 14:09 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 19–7 |
| CLE | Q4 13:16 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 19–7 |
| HOU | Q4 11:45 | 8 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 19–7 |
| CLE | Q4 8:51 | 8 | 49 | Field goal | 22–7 |
| HOU | Q4 4:01 | 10 | 56 | Touchdown | 22–14 |
| CLE | Q4 1:23 | 2 | 13 | End of half | 22–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 20/29 | 228 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Suggs | 26 | 131 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Frisman Jackson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| William Green | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 15/25 | 114 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 17 | 103 | 6.1 | 1 |
| David Carr | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.77
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.59