Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
34
Model margin
-1.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.110EPA / play-0.240
- 46.2%Success rate35.2%
- +0.241EPA / dropback-0.283
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.177
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.8%
- 46.7%Third-down rate25.7%
- 66.5%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 2.02Points / drive0.78
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 9/13 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
| Craig Nall | 7/13 | 131 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Fisher | 19 | 42 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Craig Nall | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 20/29 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 26 | 108 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-1.02