Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
44
Model margin
+10.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.239EPA / play+0.059
- 53.8%Success rate45.7%
- +0.412EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.056
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.0%
- 44.4%Third-down rate38.2%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.73Points / drive1.84
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.033EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:48 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:16 | 9 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 7:17 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| IND | Q1 4:14 | 5 | -1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q1 1:57 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| IND | Q2 12:12 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q2 10:31 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| IND | Q2 5:49 | 3 | 78 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| DEN | Q2 4:47 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 14–17 |
| IND | Q2 1:44 | 1 | -4 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| DEN | Q2 1:39 | 3 | -2 | Field goal | 14–20 |
| IND | Q2 0:49 | 3 | 8 | End of half | 14–20 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–20 |
| IND | Q3 13:53 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–20 |
| DEN | Q3 11:39 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| IND | Q3 7:03 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–27 |
| DEN | Q3 5:34 | 6 | 18 | Field goal | 14–30 |
| IND | Q3 2:20 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 14–30 |
| DEN | Q4 14:05 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 14–30 |
| IND | Q4 11:05 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–30 |
| DEN | Q4 9:01 | 5 | 57 | Field goal | 14–33 |
| IND | Q4 5:40 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–33 |
| DEN | Q4 4:31 | 5 | 35 | End of half | 14–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Sorgi | 16/25 | 168 | 2 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 17/30 | 246 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 16 | 91 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 15 | 76 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
76.3%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+8.36
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+10.88