Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
44
Model margin
+10.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.239EPA / play+0.059
- 53.8%Success rate45.7%
- +0.412EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.056
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.0%
- 44.4%Third-down rate38.2%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.73Points / drive1.84
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.033EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Sorgi | 16/25 | 168 | 2 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 17/30 | 246 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 16 | 91 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 15 | 76 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
76.3%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+8.36
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+10.88