Closing spread
IND -10
Total
56
Model margin
+2.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.239
- 45.7%Success rate53.8%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.412
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.005
- 10.0%Explosive rate11.3%
- 38.2%Third-down rate44.4%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.84Points / drive2.73
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed+0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 24/34 | 284 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Reuben Droughns | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/33 | 457 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.69