Closing spread
GB -6
Total
52.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.162EPA / play+0.110
- 50.0%Success rate46.2%
- +0.287EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.085
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- 52.5%Third-down rate46.7%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate66.5%
- 2.26Points / drive2.02
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.107EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 13:20 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:45 | 4 | 55 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| GB | Q1 9:50 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| MIN | Q1 8:44 | 5 | 40 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| GB | Q1 6:06 | 7 | 36 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| MIN | Q1 2:42 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 17–3 |
| GB | Q1 0:38 | 10 | 54 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| MIN | Q2 10:24 | 7 | 61 | Missed field goal | 17–10 |
| GB | Q2 7:25 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| MIN | Q2 7:14 | 2 | 28 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| GB | Q2 6:33 | 15 | 67 | Missed field goal | 24–10 |
| MIN | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–10 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 26 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| MIN | Q3 11:45 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 24–10 |
| GB | Q3 10:53 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 24–10 |
| MIN | Q3 8:26 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 24–10 |
| GB | Q3 5:50 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| MIN | Q3 5:43 | 6 | 1 | Punt | 24–10 |
| GB | Q3 2:53 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| MIN | Q4 13:37 | 8 | 56 | Touchdown | 31–17 |
| GB | Q4 10:18 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 31–17 |
| MIN | Q4 8:21 | 15 | 67 | Turnover on downs | 31–17 |
| GB | Q4 0:23 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 31–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 19/29 | 284 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Onterrio Smith | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/33 | 216 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
48.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.36