Closing spread
NE -16.5
Total
41
Model margin
+7.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.256
- 38.9%Success rate53.7%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.422
- -0.112EPA / rush+0.001
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.62CPOE+7.39
- 33.2%Third-down rate48.4%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate73.2%
- 1.13Points / drive3.13
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 10/20 | 97 | 0 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Dwayne Wright | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/29 | 311 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 19 | 103 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.74