Closing spread
NE -15.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-3.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.256EPA / play-0.078
- 53.7%Success rate40.4%
- +0.422EPA / dropback-0.084
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.069
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- +7.39CPOE-3.12
- 48.4%Third-down rate37.0%
- 73.2%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 3.13Points / drive1.36
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/25 | 354 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Gutierrez | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Eckel | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Lemon | 24/37 | 236 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jesse Chatman | 7 | 73 | 10.4 | 1 |
| Cleo Lemon | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.79