Closing spread
NE -5
Total
56
Model margin
+1.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.256EPA / play+0.139
- 53.7%Success rate48.8%
- +0.422EPA / dropback+0.222
- +0.001EPA / rush+0.025
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.7%
- +7.39CPOE+1.87
- 48.4%Third-down rate49.3%
- 73.2%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 3.13Points / drive2.49
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 52 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 8:26 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 6:14 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 3:05 | 13 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| IND | Q2 12:00 | 10 | 28 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| NE | Q2 7:34 | 11 | 51 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| IND | Q2 1:46 | 6 | 98 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| NE | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–13 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–13 |
| IND | Q3 13:31 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| NE | Q3 13:23 | 4 | -5 | Punt | 7–13 |
| IND | Q3 11:27 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 7–13 |
| NE | Q3 8:28 | 10 | 70 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| IND | Q3 2:22 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 10–13 |
| NE | Q3 0:08 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| IND | Q4 14:04 | 8 | 32 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| NE | Q4 9:42 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| IND | Q4 7:59 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 17–20 |
| NE | Q4 3:58 | 3 | 51 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| IND | Q4 3:15 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 24–20 |
| NE | Q4 2:25 | 3 | 14 | End of half | 24–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/32 | 255 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 16/27 | 225 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 26 | 112 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kenton Keith | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.07