Closing spread
NE -5
Total
56
Model margin
+1.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.256EPA / play+0.139
- 53.7%Success rate48.8%
- +0.422EPA / dropback+0.222
- +0.001EPA / rush+0.025
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.7%
- +7.39CPOE+1.87
- 48.4%Third-down rate49.3%
- 73.2%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 3.13Points / drive2.49
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/32 | 255 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 16/27 | 225 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 26 | 112 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kenton Keith | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.07