Closing spread
NE -15.5
Total
46
Model margin
-3.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.256EPA / play-0.125
- 53.7%Success rate38.9%
- +0.422EPA / dropback-0.137
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.112
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.6%
- +7.39CPOE-1.62
- 48.4%Third-down rate33.2%
- 73.2%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 3.13Points / drive1.13
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/39 | 373 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2/2 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Eckel | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Laurence Maroney | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 15/26 | 173 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Wright | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.57
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-3.18