Closing spread
NE -15.5
Total
46
Model margin
-3.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.256EPA / play-0.125
- 53.7%Success rate38.9%
- +0.422EPA / dropback-0.137
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.112
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.6%
- +7.39CPOE-1.62
- 48.4%Third-down rate33.2%
- 73.2%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 3.13Points / drive1.13
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:51 | 2 | 13 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 12:17 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 10:22 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| BUF | Q1 8:04 | 8 | 87 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NE | Q1 3:38 | 8 | 84 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| BUF | Q2 14:53 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 21–7 |
| NE | Q2 12:45 | 10 | 84 | Touchdown | 28–7 |
| BUF | Q2 6:33 | 8 | 15 | Punt | 28–7 |
| NE | Q2 2:49 | 12 | 72 | Touchdown | 35–7 |
| BUF | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 35–7 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 73 | Touchdown | 42–7 |
| BUF | Q3 8:49 | 6 | 18 | Field goal | 42–10 |
| NE | Q3 6:02 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 49–10 |
| BUF | Q4 14:55 | 2 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 56–10 |
| BUF | Q4 13:59 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 56–10 |
| NE | Q4 10:57 | 10 | 46 | Punt | 56–10 |
| BUF | Q4 3:49 | 8 | 55 | End of half | 56–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/39 | 373 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2/2 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Eckel | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Laurence Maroney | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 15/26 | 173 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Wright | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.57
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-3.18