Closing spread
NE -19
Total
46
Model margin
-3.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
0.9%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.256EPA / play-0.108
- 53.7%Success rate40.5%
- +0.422EPA / dropback-0.090
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.5%
- +7.39CPOE+1.46
- 48.4%Third-down rate37.9%
- 73.2%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 3.13Points / drive1.35
- 1.2%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. BAL are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/38 | 257 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 15/23 | 210 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 30 | 138 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Musa Smith | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
0.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.0%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.01