Closing spread
NE -22
Total
45
Model margin
+8.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.078EPA / play+0.256
- 40.4%Success rate53.7%
- -0.084EPA / dropback+0.422
- -0.069EPA / rush+0.001
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.7%
- -3.12CPOE+7.39
- 37.0%Third-down rate48.4%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate73.2%
- 1.36Points / drive3.13
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Lemon | 18/41 | 171 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Booker | 8 | 56 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jesse Chatman | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/33 | 215 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 14 | 156 | 11.1 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.91