Closing spread
NE -13.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.118
- 38.0%Success rate49.1%
- -0.122EPA / dropback+0.223
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.033
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.89CPOE+3.43
- 26.3%Third-down rate44.2%
- 45.2%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.20Points / drive2.12
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 15/25 | 212 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Xavier Omon | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 7 | 83 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 2 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Derek Schouman | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Shawn Nelson | 2 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 39/53 | 378 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 12 | 16 | 141 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 12 | 16 | 93 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 6 | 7 | 77 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.85
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31