2009 · Week 1

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

34·21

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Byron Leftwich

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DAL -4.5

Total

40

Model margin

+0.7est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.089EPA / play-0.156
  • 45.5%Success rate36.1%
  • +0.176EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.041EPA / rush-0.188
  • 11.3%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.70CPOE-5.15
  • 40.5%Third-down rate33.0%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.06
  • 1.6%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 36.8 points. TB are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5TB @ DAL24–16TB
2024 · W16TB @ DAL24–26DAL
2022 · playoffsDAL @ TB31–14DAL
2022 · W1TB @ DAL19–3TB
2021 · W1DAL @ TB29–31TB
2018 · W16TB @ DAL20–27DAL
2016 · W15TB @ DAL20–26DAL
2015 · W10DAL @ TB6–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–TB
DALQ1 15:00831Field goal3–0
TBQ1 9:35965Missed field goal3–0
DALQ1 4:27644Field goal6–0
TBQ1 1:221178Touchdown6–7
DALQ2 10:19426Punt6–7
TBQ2 8:42434Punt6–7
DALQ2 6:331036Punt6–7
TBQ2 2:0034Punt6–7
DALQ2 1:02251Touchdown13–7
TBQ2 0:46350Missed field goal13–7
TBQ3 15:00521Punt13–7
DALQ3 12:40379Touchdown20–7
TBQ3 11:2338Punt20–7
DALQ3 9:1535Punt20–7
TBQ3 7:3334Punt20–7
DALQ3 5:58626Punt20–7
TBQ3 3:361282Touchdown20–14
DALQ4 13:45281Touchdown27–14
TBQ4 12:431143Turnover on downs27–14
DALQ4 7:38674Touchdown34–14
TBQ4 3:571261Touchdown34–21
DALQ4 1:2829End of half34–21

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo16/2735330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber14795.61
Felix Jones6223.70
Tashard Choice2105.00
Patrick Crayton155.00
Tony Romo122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Patrick Crayton461351
Roy Williams37861
Jason Witten57710
Miles Austin12421
Martellus Bennett12130
Tashard Choice2260

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich25/4127610
Michael Clayton0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams13977.51
Derrick Ward12625.21
Kellen Winslow177.00
Clifton Smith144.00
Byron Leftwich331.00
Earnest Graham111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Clayton58930
Jerramy Stevens45410
Kellen Winslow59301
Antonio Bryant25290
Sammie Stroughter35250
Derrick Ward23210
Brian Clark11170
Maurice Stovall13130
Clifton Smith1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.0%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.73