2009 · Week 1
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
DAL -4.5
Total
40
Model margin
+0.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play-0.156
- 45.5%Success rate36.1%
- +0.176EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.041EPA / rush-0.188
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.70CPOE-5.15
- 40.5%Third-down rate33.0%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.77Points / drive1.06
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–6 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. TB are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 16/27 | 353 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Crayton | 4 | 6 | 135 | 1 |
| Roy Williams | 3 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 2 | 42 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 25/41 | 276 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 13 | 97 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Kellen Winslow | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Clifton Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Clayton | 5 | 8 | 93 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 5 | 9 | 30 | 1 |
| Antonio Bryant | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Brian Clark | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Maurice Stovall | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Clifton Smith | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.73