2009 · Week 1

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

12·7

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 73°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CIN -4.5

Total

41

Model margin

+2.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBengals
  • -0.026EPA / play-0.019
  • 42.0%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback+0.038
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.00CPOE-0.82
  • 36.3%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.65
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CIN @ DEN3–28DEN
2024 · W17DEN @ CIN24–30CIN
2021 · W15CIN @ DEN15–10CIN
2018 · W13DEN @ CIN24–10DEN
2017 · W11CIN @ DEN20–17CIN
2016 · W3DEN @ CIN29–17DEN
2015 · W16CIN @ DEN17–20DEN
2014 · W16DEN @ CIN28–37CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–CIN
DENQ1 15:00523Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:43851Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:4035Punt0–0
CINQ1 7:101045Turnover on downs0–0
DENQ1 1:443-1Punt0–0
CINQ1 0:07430Punt0–0
DENQ2 13:3234Punt0–0
CINQ2 11:57940Turnover0–0
DENQ2 6:3238Punt0–0
CINQ2 5:06619Punt0–0
DENQ2 1:48852Field goal3–0
CINQ3 15:00617Punt3–0
DENQ3 12:3338Punt3–0
CINQ3 10:073-10Punt3–0
DENQ3 8:23834Punt3–0
CINQ3 4:1339Punt3–0
DENQ3 2:29434Field goal6–0
CINQ3 0:14415Punt6–0
DENQ4 13:231148Punt6–0
CINQ4 6:211191Touchdown6–7
DENQ4 0:38287Touchdown12–7
CINQ4 0:1110Turnover12–7

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton17/2824310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Correll Buckhalter8465.80
Knowshon Moreno8192.40
LaMont Jordan252.50
Kyle Orton133.00
Peyton Hillis122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Stokley14871
Daniel Graham33400
Tony Scheffler12290
Brandon Marshall47270
Jabar Gaffney34250
Eddie Royal24180
Correll Buckhalter22110
Peyton Hillis1260

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer21/3324702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson21763.61
Chad Johnson188.00
Brian Leonard263.00
Carson Palmer122.00
Bernard Scott1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson57890
Andre Caldwell68540
Cedric Benson44320
Brian Leonard22240
Chris Henry12180
Daniel Coats12160
Laveranues Coles15110
J.P. Foschi1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.34