Closing spread
CIN -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.026EPA / play-0.019
- 42.0%Success rate42.9%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.00CPOE-0.82
- 36.3%Third-down rate41.6%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.49Points / drive1.65
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 17/28 | 243 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 4 | 87 | 1 |
| Daniel Graham | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 21/33 | 247 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 21 | 76 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 5 | 7 | 89 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 6 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Daniel Coats | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| J.P. Foschi | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.34