Closing spread
BAL -13.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+6.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.168EPA / play+0.058
- 35.2%Success rate44.3%
- -0.266EPA / dropback+0.078
- -0.069EPA / rush+0.031
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- -10.33CPOE+2.29
- 32.5%Third-down rate41.4%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.23Points / drive1.99
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 11/19 | 92 | 0 | 3 |
| Brady Quinn | 6/8 | 34 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Harrison | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 0 |
| James Davis | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Furrey | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 5 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| James Davis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/35 | 342 | 1 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 1/2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 7 | 67 | 9.6 | 2 |
| Ray Rice | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Mark Clayton | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Lawrence | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 5 | 8 | 118 | 1 |
| Kelley Washington | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| L.J. Smith | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Matt Lawrence | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.15