Closing spread
NE -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play+0.118
- 44.3%Success rate49.1%
- +0.078EPA / dropback+0.223
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.033
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- +2.29CPOE+3.43
- 41.4%Third-down rate44.2%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.99Points / drive2.12
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 27/47 | 264 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 11 | 103 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 7 | 11 | 88 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 5 | 10 | 45 | 0 |
| Kelley Washington | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/32 | 258 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Laurence Maroney | 7 | 6 | 0.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Sam Aiken | 1 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.82