2009 · Week 4

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

21·27

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NE -1

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapPatriots
  • +0.058EPA / play+0.118
  • 44.3%Success rate49.1%
  • +0.078EPA / dropback+0.223
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.033
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +2.29CPOE+3.43
  • 41.4%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.12
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16NE @ BAL28–24NE
2022 · W3BAL @ NE37–26BAL
2020 · W10BAL @ NE17–23NE
2019 · W9NE @ BAL20–37BAL
2016 · W14BAL @ NE23–30NE
2014 · playoffsBAL @ NE31–35NE
2013 · W16NE @ BAL41–7NE
2012 · playoffsBAL @ NE28–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NE
BALQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
NEQ1 14:543-2Field goal0–3
BALQ1 13:341586Touchdown7–3
NEQ1 6:591566Touchdown7–10
BALQ2 14:08638Punt7–10
NEQ2 11:42751Punt7–10
BALQ2 7:5835Punt7–10
NEQ2 6:51648Touchdown7–17
BALQ2 3:57948Turnover7–17
NEQ2 1:1114End of half7–17
NEQ3 15:001018Punt7–17
BALQ3 10:16921Punt13–17
NEQ3 6:271-14Opp touchdown14–17
NEQ3 6:19679Touchdown14–24
BALQ3 2:27890Touchdown21–24
NEQ4 14:171565Field goal21–27
BALQ4 7:1049Turnover on downs21–27
NEQ4 5:0936Punt21–27
BALQ4 3:321366Turnover on downs21–27
NEQ4 0:2800End of half21–27

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco27/4726421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice111039.40
Willis McGahee5112.20
Joe Flacco122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason711881
Ray Rice57490
Todd Heap46460
Mark Clayton510450
Kelley Washington47310
Willis McGahee13131

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady21/3225810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor7253.60
Kevin Faulk5224.40
Sammy Morris6213.51
Tom Brady5112.21
Laurence Maroney760.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson23510
Randy Moss35501
Wes Welker610480
Sammy Morris55350
Sam Aiken15260
Laurence Maroney11170
Fred Taylor11130
Julian Edelman11120
Kevin Faulk1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.82