Closing spread
CIN -6
Total
37.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.168
- 42.9%Success rate35.2%
- +0.038EPA / dropback-0.266
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.069
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- -0.82CPOE-10.33
- 41.6%Third-down rate32.5%
- 54.4%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.65Points / drive1.23
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 23/44 | 230 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Foschi | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Daniel Coats | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 6 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 3 | 11 | 24 | 2 |
| Cedric Benson | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 26/48 | 269 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Harrison | 29 | 121 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Chris Jennings | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 8 | 13 | 148 | 0 |
| Mike Furrey | 4 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 5 | 8 | 33 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Jennings | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.12