2009 · Week 4 · Division

Final / OT

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

23·20

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CIN -6

Total

37.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.019EPA / play-0.168
  • 42.9%Success rate35.2%
  • +0.038EPA / dropback-0.266
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.069
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -0.82CPOE-10.33
  • 41.6%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 54.4%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.23
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CINQ1 15:001088Missed field goal0–0
CLEQ1 8:1533Punt0–0
CINQ1 7:231268Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 0:3539Opp touchdown14–0
CLEQ2 14:10842Punt14–0
CINQ2 10:3634Punt14–0
CLEQ2 8:57529Punt14–0
CINQ2 6:3610Turnover14–0
CLEQ2 6:283-8Punt14–0
CINQ2 5:0038Punt14–0
CLEQ2 3:19438Touchdown14–7
CINQ2 1:2639Punt14–7
CLEQ2 0:17339End of half14–7
CLEQ3 15:001177Turnover14–7
CINQ3 8:3836Punt14–7
CLEQ3 7:141077Touchdown14–14
CINQ3 1:3700Field goal14–14
CLEQ3 1:2939Field goal14–17
CINQ4 14:5833Punt14–17
CLEQ4 13:58619Punt14–17
CINQ4 10:1132Punt14–17
CLEQ4 8:3131Field goal14–20
CINQ4 6:341070Touchdown20–20
CLEQ4 1:55727Punt20–20
CINQ4 0:1100End of half20–20
CINOT527Punt20–20
CLEOT34Punt20–20
CINOT517Punt20–20
CLEOT611Punt20–20
CINOT36Punt20–20
CLEOT518Punt20–20
CINOT1267Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer23/4423021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson18744.10
Bernard Scott6416.80
Carson Palmer3206.70
Andre Caldwell11111.00
Brian Leonard144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
J.P. Foschi33440
Chris Henry23360
Daniel Coats46360
Brian Leonard67280
Andre Caldwell24260
Laveranues Coles26240
Chad Johnson311242
Cedric Benson13120

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson26/4826911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Harrison291214.20
Josh Cribbs11515.00
Chris Jennings188.00
Derek Anderson221.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Massaquoi8131480
Mike Furrey47370
Steve Heiden58331
Jerome Harrison57310
Robert Royal24130
Josh Cribbs1250
Chris Jennings1120
Braylon Edwards0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.1%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.12