Closing spread
BAL -9
Total
42
Model margin
+5.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.058
- 42.9%Success rate44.3%
- +0.038EPA / dropback+0.078
- -0.082EPA / rush+0.031
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- -0.82CPOE+2.29
- 41.6%Third-down rate41.4%
- 54.4%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.65Points / drive1.99
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 18/31 | 271 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 27 | 120 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Carson Palmer | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 7 | 10 | 94 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 3 | 5 | 92 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| J.P. Foschi | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Coats | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/31 | 186 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 7 | 8 | 74 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 7 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Kelley Washington | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.30