2009 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

17·14

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 64°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -9

Total

42

Model margin

+5.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.058
  • 42.9%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.038EPA / dropback+0.078
  • -0.082EPA / rush+0.031
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -0.82CPOE+2.29
  • 41.6%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 54.4%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.99
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
CINQ1 15:001160Missed field goal0–0
BALQ1 7:561162Turnover0–0
CINQ1 2:25831Opp touchdown0–7
CINQ2 12:17670Field goal3–7
BALQ2 10:1139Punt3–7
CINQ2 8:17522Punt3–7
BALQ2 5:2867Punt3–7
CINQ2 2:32447Turnover3–7
BALQ2 1:16635Turnover on downs3–7
BALQ3 15:00615Punt3–7
CINQ3 12:05312Punt3–7
BALQ3 9:2639Punt3–7
CINQ3 7:111089Touchdown10–7
BALQ3 0:52417Punt10–7
CINQ4 13:49611Punt10–7
BALQ4 10:18684Touchdown10–14
CINQ4 6:5936Punt10–14
BALQ4 5:29619Punt10–14
CINQ4 2:151356Touchdown17–14
BALQ4 0:2220Turnover17–14
CINQ4 0:0400End of half17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer18/3127111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson271204.41
Carson Palmer5183.60
Bernard Scott133.00
Brian Leonard111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson710940
Chris Henry35920
Andre Caldwell22331
Brian Leonard33300
Cedric Benson23160
J.P. Foschi1260
Laveranues Coles0100
Daniel Coats0400

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/3118612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice14694.90
Joe Flacco199.00
Willis McGahee1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ray Rice78741
Todd Heap79410
Mark Clayton37360
Kelley Washington11210
Willis McGahee1140
Derrick Mason0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.4%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.30