2009 · Week 5

Final / OT

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

17·20

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 30°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

41

Model margin

+0.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.026
  • 49.1%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.223EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.107
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +3.43CPOE-2.00
  • 44.2%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.49
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DEN
DENQ1 15:00850Missed field goal0–0
NEQ1 11:00762Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 6:44323Turnover7–0
NEQ1 5:1848Field goal10–0
DENQ1 3:5139Punt10–0
NEQ1 2:1739Punt10–0
DENQ1 0:07422Punt10–0
NEQ2 13:31942Punt10–0
DENQ2 9:341075Touchdown10–7
NEQ2 4:311074Touchdown17–7
DENQ2 0:0510Turnover17–7
NEQ3 15:0036Punt17–7
DENQ3 13:541476Field goal17–10
NEQ3 7:22544Missed field goal17–10
DENQ3 5:15728Punt17–10
NEQ3 1:231339Punt17–10
DENQ4 9:591287Touchdown17–17
NEQ4 5:2137Punt17–17
DENQ4 3:4936Punt17–17
NEQ4 2:27315Turnover17–17
DENQ4 1:373-5Punt17–17
NEQ4 0:0700End of half17–17
DENOT1153Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady19/3321520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sammy Morris17684.00
Laurence Maroney5214.20
Kevin Faulk482.00
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker815861
Sammy Morris23390
Randy Moss14360
Kevin Faulk33260
Julian Edelman33150
Benjamin Watson22131
Chris Baker0200
Michael Matthews0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton35/4833021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno21884.20
LaMont Jordan393.00
Brandon Marshall166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eddie Royal1015900
Brandon Marshall811642
Jabar Gaffney68610
Tony Scheffler45450
Knowshon Moreno45360
Daniel Graham33340
Brandon Stokley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.49