Closing spread
NE -3
Total
41
Model margin
+0.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.026
- 49.1%Success rate42.0%
- +0.223EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.107
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- +3.43CPOE-2.00
- 44.2%Third-down rate36.3%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 2.12Points / drive1.49
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/33 | 215 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 8 | 15 | 86 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Chris Baker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Matthews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 35/48 | 330 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 21 | 88 | 4.2 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Royal | 10 | 15 | 90 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 8 | 11 | 64 | 2 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 6 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.49