2009 · Week 6

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

28·17

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CIN -4

Total

46

Model margin

+0.4est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBengals
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.019
  • 46.2%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback+0.038
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.082
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +4.51CPOE-0.82
  • 41.5%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.65
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. CIN are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CIN @ HOU20–6CIN
2023 · W10HOU @ CIN30–27HOU
2020 · W16CIN @ HOU37–31CIN
2017 · W2HOU @ CIN13–9HOU
2016 · W16CIN @ HOU10–12HOU
2015 · W10HOU @ CIN10–6HOU
2014 · W12CIN @ HOU22–13CIN
2012 · playoffsCIN @ HOU13–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CIN
CINQ1 15:00730Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:57577Missed field goal0–0
CINQ1 9:12639Punt0–0
HOUQ1 6:221168Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 0:48864Touchdown7–7
HOUQ2 11:33775Touchdown14–7
CINQ2 7:5933Punt14–7
HOUQ2 6:1130Punt14–7
CINQ2 4:3834Punt14–7
HOUQ2 3:2338Punt14–7
CINQ2 2:19669Touchdown14–14
HOUQ2 0:48410Turnover14–14
CINQ2 0:0919Field goal14–17
HOUQ3 15:00766Touchdown21–17
CINQ3 11:23414Turnover21–17
HOUQ3 9:58414Punt21–17
CINQ3 8:003-3Punt21–17
HOUQ3 6:41866Touchdown28–17
CINQ3 2:293-5Punt28–17
HOUQ3 1:2435Punt28–17
CINQ4 15:0036Punt28–17
HOUQ4 13:181257Turnover28–17
CINQ4 6:12212Turnover28–17
HOUQ4 5:38414Punt28–17
CINQ4 3:37754Turnover28–17
HOUQ4 1:48214End of half28–17

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub28/4039241

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Brown9455.00
Steve Slaton19432.30
Matt Schaub3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson8141350
Steve Slaton661021
Owen Daniels79782
Kevin Walter34290
Jacoby Jones22291
David Anderson11120

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer23/3525911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson16442.81
Carson Palmer122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson571030
Andre Caldwell69570
Laveranues Coles45401
Daniel Coats46320
Chris Henry13200
J.P. Foschi1360
Cedric Benson2210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.39