Closing spread
CIN -4
Total
46
Model margin
+0.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.019
- 46.2%Success rate42.9%
- +0.159EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.082
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.51CPOE-0.82
- 41.5%Third-down rate41.6%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.79Points / drive1.65
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. CIN are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 28/40 | 392 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 19 | 43 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 8 | 14 | 135 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 6 | 6 | 102 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 7 | 9 | 78 | 2 |
| Kevin Walter | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| David Anderson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 23/35 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 5 | 7 | 103 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 6 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Daniel Coats | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| J.P. Foschi | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.39