Closing spread
BAL -4.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.026EPA / play+0.058
- 42.0%Success rate44.3%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.078
- -0.107EPA / rush+0.031
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.0%
- -2.00CPOE+2.29
- 36.3%Third-down rate41.4%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.49Points / drive1.99
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 23/37 | 152 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/25 | 175 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 23 | 84 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelley Washington | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Mark Clayton | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.24