2009 · Week 8

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

7·30

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 56°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -4.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+5.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapRavens
  • -0.026EPA / play+0.058
  • 42.0%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback+0.078
  • -0.107EPA / rush+0.031
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -2.00CPOE+2.29
  • 36.3%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.99
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–5 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DEN @ BAL10–41BAL
2022 · W13DEN @ BAL9–10BAL
2021 · W4BAL @ DEN23–7BAL
2018 · W3DEN @ BAL14–27BAL
2015 · W1BAL @ DEN13–19DEN
2013 · W1BAL @ DEN27–49DEN
2012 · playoffsBAL @ DEN38–35BAL
2012 · W15DEN @ BAL34–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–BAL
DENQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:53610Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:3733Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:01924Punt0–0
DENQ1 4:4343Turnover0–0
BALQ1 2:443-2Field goal0–3
DENQ1 0:56417Punt0–3
BALQ2 14:0936Punt0–3
DENQ2 12:49516Punt0–3
BALQ2 10:531066Field goal0–6
DENQ2 4:581041Punt0–6
BALQ2 0:2700End of half0–12
BALQ3 15:0000Touchdown0–13
DENQ3 14:461342Touchdown7–13
BALQ3 9:461064Field goal7–16
DENQ3 4:5538Punt7–16
BALQ3 3:251063Touchdown7–23
DENQ4 13:07524Punt7–23
BALQ4 10:503-1Punt7–23
DENQ4 8:453-15Punt7–23
BALQ4 7:041063Touchdown7–30
DENQ4 1:59862End of half7–30

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton23/3715200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno10393.91
Correll Buckhalter8162.00
Kyle Orton11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jabar Gaffney34430
Correll Buckhalter66300
Daniel Graham34300
Brandon Marshall48240
Eddie Royal28100
Peyton Hillis22100
Tony Scheffler1290
Knowshon Moreno22-40

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/2517510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice23843.71
Joe Flacco551.00
Mark Clayton144.00
Todd Heap122.00
Willis McGahee2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelley Washington46580
Derrick Mason45401
Mark Clayton34330
Ray Rice55240
Todd Heap34160
Willis McGahee1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.24