Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
-0.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.125
- 46.2%Success rate38.0%
- +0.159EPA / dropback-0.122
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.129
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- +4.51CPOE-1.89
- 41.5%Third-down rate26.3%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
- 1.79Points / drive1.20
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 25/34 | 268 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Moats | 23 | 126 | 5.5 | 3 |
| Chris Brown | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 6 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| James Casey | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 15/23 | 117 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Justin Jenkins | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Derek Fine | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.13