2009 · Week 8

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

31·10

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 49°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

42

Model margin

-0.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBills
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.125
  • 46.2%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback-0.122
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.129
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +4.51CPOE-1.89
  • 41.5%Third-down rate26.3%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.20
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BUF @ HOU36–31BUF
2025 · W12BUF @ HOU19–23HOU
2024 · W5BUF @ HOU20–23HOU
2021 · W4HOU @ BUF0–40BUF
2019 · playoffsBUF @ HOU19–22HOU
2018 · W6BUF @ HOU13–20HOU
2015 · W13HOU @ BUF21–30BUF
2014 · W4BUF @ HOU17–23HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–BUF
HOUQ1 15:00652Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 12:17519Punt0–0
HOUQ1 9:4334Punt0–0
BUFQ1 8:1338Punt0–0
HOUQ1 6:09311Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 5:153-1Punt0–0
HOUQ1 3:2526Turnover0–6
BUFQ1 2:40129Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 2:31730Field goal3–7
BUFQ2 14:49835Punt3–7
HOUQ2 10:371491Field goal6–7
BUFQ2 2:18731Field goal6–10
HOUQ2 0:1812End of half6–10
BUFQ3 15:0036Punt6–10
HOUQ3 13:181172Field goal9–10
BUFQ3 7:05413Punt9–10
HOUQ3 5:131072Touchdown17–10
BUFQ4 14:1745Turnover on downs17–10
HOUQ4 12:19637Touchdown24–10
BUFQ4 9:5025Turnover24–10
HOUQ4 8:591066Touchdown31–10
BUFQ4 3:34654Turnover31–10
HOUQ4 1:5400End of half31–10

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub25/3426802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Moats231265.53
Chris Brown7223.10
Jacoby Jones11717.00
Kevin Walter11313.00
Matt Schaub771.00
Steve Slaton111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson610630
David Anderson33510
Jacoby Jones11360
Kevin Walter46290
Ryan Moats23250
Owen Daniels12220
James Casey23140
Steve Slaton22100
Chris Brown2270

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick15/2311702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch9434.80
Terrell Owens12929.01
Fred Jackson9283.10
Justin Jenkins1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens58390
Josh Reed34290
Lee Evans22290
Derek Fine1290
Marshawn Lynch3560
Steve Johnson1150
Fred Jackson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.13