Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
45
Model margin
+0.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play-0.019
- 44.3%Success rate42.9%
- +0.078EPA / dropback+0.038
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.082
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- +2.29CPOE-0.82
- 41.4%Third-down rate41.6%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.99Points / drive1.65
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 18/32 | 195 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 8 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 3 | 13 | 31 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Kelley Washington | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Demetrius Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/33 | 224 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 34 | 117 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 5 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| J.P. Foschi | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 3 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| Cedric Benson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Coats | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.23