2009 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

7·17

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

45

Model margin

+0.2est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • +0.058EPA / play-0.019
  • 44.3%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.078EPA / dropback+0.038
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.082
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +2.29CPOE-0.82
  • 41.4%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.65
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
CINQ1 15:001273Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 8:5555Punt0–7
CINQ1 7:071344Touchdown0–14
BALQ1 2:23726Punt0–14
CINQ2 14:431180Field goal0–17
BALQ2 7:4538Punt0–17
CINQ2 5:38632Punt0–17
BALQ2 2:5210Turnover0–17
CINQ2 2:4336Punt0–17
BALQ2 1:4235End of half0–17
BALQ3 15:00421Turnover0–17
CINQ3 13:06616Punt0–17
BALQ3 9:25513Punt0–17
CINQ3 7:2332Punt0–17
BALQ3 5:5240Punt0–17
CINQ3 4:44747Turnover on downs0–17
BALQ3 0:37975Touchdown7–17
CINQ4 12:54854Turnover7–17
BALQ4 7:56627Missed field goal7–17
CINQ4 6:1239Punt7–17
BALQ4 3:4780Turnover on downs7–17
CINQ4 1:5046Turnover on downs7–17
BALQ4 0:06135End of half7–17

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco18/3219502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice12484.01
Joe Flacco231.50
Derrick Mason122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ray Rice88870
Derrick Mason313310
Todd Heap34280
Mark Clayton12150
Kelley Washington12100
Demetrius Williams0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer20/3322410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson341173.41
Brian Leonard3113.70
Carson Palmer11010.00
Laveranues Coles188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles69720
Chad Johnson59660
J.P. Foschi23320
Chris Henry11200
Brian Leonard33190
Andre Caldwell35151
Cedric Benson0100
Daniel Coats0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.23