Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.127
- 46.2%Success rate48.9%
- +0.159EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.077
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- +4.51CPOE+4.60
- 41.5%Third-down rate48.9%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 1.79Points / drive2.29
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 32/43 | 311 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Moats | 16 | 38 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 10 | 13 | 103 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 5 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 3 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Anthony Hill | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 34/50 | 318 | 1 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chad Simpson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Clark | 14 | 16 | 119 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 8 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 5 | 10 | 49 | 1 |
| Austin Collie | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Chad Simpson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.85