2009 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

17·20

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -7.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.127
  • 46.2%Success rate48.9%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback+0.241
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.077
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +4.51CPOE+4.60
  • 41.5%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.29
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
INDQ1 15:00943Turnover on downs0–0
HOUQ1 12:5135Punt0–0
INDQ1 10:591377Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 6:2010Turnover0–7
INDQ1 6:04732Field goal0–10
HOUQ1 3:5737Punt0–10
INDQ1 1:411244Field goal0–13
HOUQ2 12:503-3Punt0–13
INDQ2 11:20625Punt0–13
HOUQ2 8:181273Turnover0–13
INDQ2 2:001043Turnover0–13
HOUQ2 0:56517Field goal3–13
HOUQ3 15:001286Touchdown10–13
INDQ3 8:3139Punt10–13
HOUQ3 6:391284Touchdown17–13
INDQ4 14:58835Turnover17–13
HOUQ4 12:3135Punt17–13
INDQ4 11:00861Touchdown17–20
HOUQ4 7:11947Turnover17–20
INDQ4 2:1339Punt17–20
HOUQ4 1:46861Missed field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub32/4331112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Moats16382.40
Matt Schaub3217.00
Steve Slaton6172.81
Jacoby Jones155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson10131030
Kevin Walter56670
Jacoby Jones45670
David Anderson34190
Ryan Moats33151
Joel Dreessen23150
Steve Slaton33120
Anthony Hill1290
Andre Davis0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning34/5031811
Reggie Wayne0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai14634.51
Dallas Clark144.00
Chad Simpson231.50
Peyton Manning122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Clark14161190
Reggie Wayne89640
Pierre Garcon59600
Joseph Addai510491
Austin Collie26260
Chad Simpson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.85