2009 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

16·0

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brady Quinn

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

BAL -10.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • +0.058EPA / play-0.168
  • 44.3%Success rate35.2%
  • +0.078EPA / dropback-0.266
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.069
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +2.29CPOE-10.33
  • 41.4%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.23
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
BALQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:43415Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:071154Missed field goal0–0
CLEQ1 4:44916Punt0–0
BALQ1 0:3639Punt0–0
CLEQ2 14:04638Punt0–0
BALQ2 11:41528Punt0–0
CLEQ2 9:07725Punt0–0
BALQ2 6:081046Punt0–0
CLEQ2 0:5614End of half0–0
CLEQ3 15:0032Punt0–0
BALQ3 14:02459Touchdown7–0
CLEQ3 12:2810Opp touchdown13–0
CLEQ3 12:1169Turnover13–0
BALQ3 9:1333Field goal16–0
CLEQ3 7:201017Punt16–0
BALQ3 1:0248Punt16–0
CLEQ4 14:4434Punt16–0
BALQ4 12:57420Punt16–0
CLEQ4 10:14619Punt16–0
BALQ4 8:34618Punt16–0
CLEQ4 4:533-2Punt16–0
BALQ4 3:45926Turnover on downs16–0
CLEQ4 0:20314End of half16–0

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco13/1815500
Ray Rice0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice20894.51
Willis McGahee13352.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason34780
Todd Heap45430
Ray Rice33150
Kelley Washington0200
Mark Clayton0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Quinn13/319902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis10363.60
Josh Cribbs6345.70
Chris Jennings7182.60
Brady Quinn210.50
Mohamed Massaquoi1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Furrey68300
Mohamed Massaquoi13300
Josh Cribbs17100
Chris Jennings12100
Steve Heiden1190
Robert Royal1270
Jamal Lewis1150
Jerome Harrison0200
Brian Robiskie0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.62