Closing spread
BAL -10.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play-0.168
- 44.3%Success rate35.2%
- +0.078EPA / dropback-0.266
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.069
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- +2.29CPOE-10.33
- 41.4%Third-down rate32.5%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.99Points / drive1.23
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 13/18 | 155 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 20 | 89 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Willis McGahee | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 3 | 4 | 78 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kelley Washington | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 13/31 | 99 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Chris Jennings | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Furrey | 6 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Jennings | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.62