Closing spread
IND -1
Total
48
Model margin
+1.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play+0.127
- 49.1%Success rate48.9%
- +0.223EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- +3.43CPOE+4.60
- 44.2%Third-down rate48.9%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 2.12Points / drive2.29
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/42 | 375 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 12 | 79 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 9 | 16 | 179 | 2 |
| Wes Welker | 9 | 11 | 94 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Isaiah Stanback | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Chris Baker | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/44 | 327 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Chad Simpson | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 10 | 12 | 126 | 2 |
| Dallas Clark | 4 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 11 | 50 | 1 |
| Austin Collie | 6 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Gijon Robinson | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.80