2009 · Week 10

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

34·35

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

48

Model margin

+1.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapColts
  • +0.118EPA / play+0.127
  • 49.1%Success rate48.9%
  • +0.223EPA / dropback+0.241
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.077
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +3.43CPOE+4.60
  • 44.2%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.29
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–IND
INDQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:2238Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:47890Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 8:19673Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 4:47419Punt7–7
NEQ1 3:071168Field goal10–7
INDQ2 13:1537Punt10–7
NEQ2 12:09275Touchdown17–7
INDQ2 11:1844Punt17–7
NEQ2 9:31557Touchdown24–7
INDQ2 7:19961Touchdown24–14
NEQ2 4:1730Punt24–14
INDQ2 3:5435Punt24–14
NEQ2 2:4037Punt24–14
INDQ2 1:36621Punt24–14
NEQ2 0:2200End of half24–14
NEQ3 15:00640Turnover24–14
INDQ3 11:50424Turnover24–14
NEQ3 10:321387Turnover24–14
INDQ3 2:41616Punt24–14
NEQ4 15:0027Touchdown31–14
INDQ4 14:18579Touchdown31–21
NEQ4 12:14725Punt31–21
INDQ4 7:5410Turnover31–21
NEQ4 7:44613Field goal34–21
INDQ4 4:12748Touchdown34–28
NEQ4 2:2349Turnover on downs34–28
INDQ4 2:00429Touchdown34–35
NEQ4 0:1319End of half34–35

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/4237531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Faulk12796.60
Laurence Maroney13312.41
Tom Brady331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss9161792
Wes Welker911940
Benjamin Watson12360
Isaiah Stanback22170
Laurence Maroney22150
Julian Edelman22141
Chris Baker22130
Kevin Faulk2570

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning28/4432742

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai10414.11
Chad Simpson4369.00
Donald Brown4143.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne10121262
Dallas Clark45650
Pierre Garcon311501
Austin Collie68450
Joseph Addai23271
Donald Brown1280
Gijon Robinson2360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.80