2009 · Week 11

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

17·15

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 56°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

44

Model margin

+3.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapRavens
  • +0.127EPA / play+0.058
  • 48.9%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.241EPA / dropback+0.078
  • -0.077EPA / rush+0.031
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +4.60CPOE+2.29
  • 48.9%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 73.5%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 2.29Points / drive1.99
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–BAL
INDQ1 15:00787Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 11:2400Field goal7–0
BALQ1 11:2412Field goal7–0
BALQ1 11:0112Field goal7–0
BALQ1 10:381047Field goal7–3
INDQ1 5:0910Turnover7–3
BALQ1 4:5333Field goal7–6
INDQ1 4:01751Punt7–6
BALQ1 0:3238Punt7–6
INDQ2 13:03828Turnover7–6
BALQ2 8:33732Field goal7–9
INDQ2 4:43880Touchdown14–9
BALQ2 1:23754Field goal14–12
INDQ2 0:0200End of half14–12
BALQ3 15:0038Punt14–12
INDQ3 13:33863Turnover14–12
BALQ3 8:52784Missed field goal14–12
INDQ3 4:5537Punt14–12
BALQ3 3:171560Field goal14–15
INDQ4 10:12845Field goal17–15
BALQ4 7:02954Turnover17–15
INDQ4 2:42615Punt17–15
INDQ4 0:1100End of half17–15

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning22/3129912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai19743.91
Donald Brown4102.50
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00
Pierre Garcon1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon681080
Reggie Wayne710890
Tom Santi68800
Austin Collie11120
Joseph Addai1170
Dallas Clark1331

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco23/3525601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice20713.50
Willis McGahee6254.20
Joe Flacco2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason9161420
Ray Rice710640
Todd Heap22150
Mark Clayton12100
Kelley Washington1180
Willis McGahee1170
L.J. Smith1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.76