Closing spread
IND -1
Total
44
Model margin
+3.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play+0.058
- 48.9%Success rate44.3%
- +0.241EPA / dropback+0.078
- -0.077EPA / rush+0.031
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.60CPOE+2.29
- 48.9%Third-down rate41.4%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 2.29Points / drive1.99
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/31 | 299 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 19 | 74 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 8 | 108 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 7 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Tom Santi | 6 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 23/35 | 256 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 20 | 71 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 9 | 16 | 142 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 7 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Kelley Washington | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| L.J. Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.76