Closing spread
CIN -12
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.168EPA / play-0.019
- 35.2%Success rate42.9%
- -0.266EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- -10.33CPOE-0.82
- 32.5%Third-down rate41.6%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.23Points / drive1.65
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 15/34 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1/1 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Chris Jennings | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chansi Stuckey | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Greg Estandia | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Furrey | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Jennings | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Gaines | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 13/24 | 110 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 22 | 107 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 18 | 87 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 2 | 9 | 24 | 0 |
| J.P. Foschi | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Maurice Purify | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.34