2009 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brady Quinn

7·16

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 59°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CIN -12

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • -0.168EPA / play-0.019
  • 35.2%Success rate42.9%
  • -0.266EPA / dropback+0.038
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -10.33CPOE-0.82
  • 32.5%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
  • 1.23Points / drive1.65
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CLEQ1 15:00626Punt0–0
CINQ1 11:541561Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 3:0639Punt0–3
CINQ1 0:49516Punt0–3
CLEQ2 13:45611Punt0–3
CINQ2 11:04724Punt0–3
CLEQ2 8:4533Punt0–3
CINQ2 7:481278Touchdown0–10
CLEQ2 1:103-3Punt0–10
CINQ2 0:213-10Field goal0–13
CINQ3 15:00721Punt0–13
CLEQ3 10:30855Touchdown7–13
CINQ3 6:521062Field goal7–16
CLEQ3 0:50717Punt7–16
CINQ4 13:05619Punt7–16
CLEQ4 10:0932Punt7–16
CINQ4 8:36519Punt7–16
CLEQ4 6:431022Punt7–16
CINQ4 3:4934Punt7–16
CLEQ4 3:04727Turnover on downs7–16
CINQ4 1:55214End of half7–16

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Quinn15/3410000
Josh Cribbs1/11800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis11403.60
Brady Quinn2105.01
Chris Jennings252.50
Jerome Harrison231.50
Josh Cribbs100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chansi Stuckey48440
Brady Quinn11180
Greg Estandia14170
Mohamed Massaquoi18120
Mike Furrey1190
Josh Cribbs3470
Jerome Harrison3550
Chris Jennings1140
Michael Gaines0100
Jake Allen0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer13/2411010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Larry Johnson221074.90
Bernard Scott18874.80
Carson Palmer4153.80
Brian Leonard111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson35380
Andre Caldwell33330
Laveranues Coles29240
J.P. Foschi22111
Brian Leonard1160
Maurice Purify0100
Larry Johnson22-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +126.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.34