Closing spread
IND -3
Total
48
Model margin
+3.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play+0.043
- 48.9%Success rate46.2%
- +0.241EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.149
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- +4.60CPOE+4.51
- 48.9%Third-down rate41.5%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 2.29Points / drive1.79
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/35 | 244 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Chad Simpson | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Collie | 4 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 9 | 10 | 63 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 6 | 19 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Tom Santi | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 31/42 | 284 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Walter | 7 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 5 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 7 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Chris Brown | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| James Casey | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
6.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.04