2009 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

35·27

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

48

Model margin

+3.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • +0.127EPA / play+0.043
  • 48.9%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.241EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.149
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +4.60CPOE+4.51
  • 48.9%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 73.5%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
  • 2.29Points / drive1.79
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
HOUQ1 15:001184Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 8:2551Punt0–7
HOUQ1 5:56766Touchdown0–14
INDQ1 2:10636Turnover0–14
HOUQ2 14:49728Field goal0–17
INDQ2 10:49964Touchdown7–17
HOUQ2 5:461065Field goal7–20
INDQ2 1:00426Turnover7–20
HOUQ2 0:0700End of half7–20
INDQ3 15:001130Touchdown14–20
HOUQ3 11:20425Turnover14–20
INDQ3 9:09417Punt14–20
HOUQ3 6:48311Punt14–20
INDQ3 4:511361Missed field goal14–20
HOUQ4 13:21416Punt14–20
INDQ4 11:14872Touchdown21–20
HOUQ4 8:2420Opp touchdown28–20
HOUQ4 8:09827Turnover28–20
INDQ4 4:35437Touchdown35–20
HOUQ4 2:521275Touchdown35–27
INDQ4 0:1800End of half35–27

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning27/3524432

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai15694.60
Donald Brown5275.40
Chad Simpson22010.01
Peyton Manning1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Collie45700
Dallas Clark910631
Pierre Garcon57631
Reggie Wayne36191
Joseph Addai34130
Donald Brown22110
Tom Santi1150

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub31/4228422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steve Slaton10575.70
Chris Brown11565.11
Matt Schaub263.00
Kevin Walter133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Walter77730
Andre Johnson59670
Steve Slaton78490
Jacoby Jones34271
Chris Brown33200
James Casey24170
Joel Dreessen11140
David Anderson1360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

6.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.04