Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.026EPA / play+0.127
- 42.0%Success rate48.9%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.8%
- -2.00CPOE+4.60
- 36.3%Third-down rate48.9%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 1.49Points / drive2.29
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 29/41 | 277 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 23 | 63 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 21 | 28 | 200 | 2 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/42 | 220 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 5 | 9 | 43 | 3 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 3 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Gijon Robinson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.80