2009 · Week 14

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

16·28

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -6.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapColts
  • -0.026EPA / play+0.127
  • 42.0%Success rate48.9%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback+0.241
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.077
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -2.00CPOE+4.60
  • 36.3%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 1.49Points / drive2.29
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 14–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2DEN @ IND28–29IND
2024 · W15IND @ DEN13–31DEN
2022 · W5IND @ DEN12–9IND
2019 · W8DEN @ IND13–15IND
2017 · W15DEN @ IND25–13DEN
2016 · W2IND @ DEN20–34DEN
2015 · W9DEN @ IND24–27IND
2014 · playoffsIND @ DEN24–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–IND
INDQ1 15:001380Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 9:0637Punt0–7
INDQ1 7:28756Touchdown0–14
DENQ1 5:04739Turnover on downs0–14
INDQ1 1:4536Punt0–14
DENQ1 0:57523Punt0–14
INDQ2 13:011156Touchdown0–21
DENQ2 7:581280Touchdown7–21
INDQ2 2:2336Punt7–21
DENQ2 1:4149Turnover on downs7–21
INDQ2 0:4024Turnover7–21
DENQ2 0:29532End of half7–21
DENQ3 15:0038Punt7–21
INDQ3 13:4032Punt7–21
DENQ3 12:42526Punt7–21
INDQ3 9:11418Turnover7–21
DENQ3 7:19622Turnover7–21
INDQ3 4:3332Punt7–21
DENQ3 3:34628Missed field goal7–21
INDQ3 1:0210Turnover7–21
DENQ3 0:52414Field goal10–21
INDQ4 14:5030Punt10–21
DENQ4 14:281163Touchdown16–21
INDQ4 9:441485Touchdown16–28
DENQ4 2:2546Turnover on downs16–28
INDQ4 1:5100End of half16–28

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton29/4127721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno23632.70
Correll Buckhalter4194.80
Kyle Orton2115.50
Peyton Hillis122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall21282002
Jabar Gaffney34480
Knowshon Moreno34130
Daniel Graham1160
Eddie Royal1230
Brandon Stokley0100
Tony Scheffler0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning20/4222043

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai16674.20
Mike Hart9283.10
Peyton Manning3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joseph Addai58490
Reggie Wayne47430
Dallas Clark59433
Pierre Garcon29390
Austin Collie36391
Gijon Robinson1170
Jacob Tamme0100
Mike Hart0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

4.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.80