Closing spread
NE -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- QuestionableBenjamin WatsonTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableFred TaylorRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJarvis GreenDEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJulian EdelmanWRForearm· Limited
- QuestionableMyron PryorDEChest· Limited
- QuestionableNick KaczurTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableSam AikenWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableSteve NealGAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableTully Banta-CainLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableTy WarrenDEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableVince WilforkDTFoot· DNP
- DNPRandy MossWRNot Injury Related
- ProbableLeigh BoddenCBThigh· Limited
- ProbableTom BradyQBright Shoulder· Limited
- ProbableShawn SpringsCBKnee· Full
Bills
- OutKendall SimmonsGShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableJamon MeredithTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJonathan ScottTEye· Limited
- QuestionableJustin JenkinsWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTerrell OwensWRIllness· DNP
- ProbableJairus ByrdSGroin· Limited
- LimitedJoe KlopfensteinTEAnkle
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.125
- 49.1%Success rate38.0%
- +0.223EPA / dropback-0.122
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.129
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +3.43CPOE-1.89
- 44.2%Third-down rate26.3%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
- 2.12Points / drive1.20
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 74 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 5:36 | 7 | 26 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 2:40 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 0:46 | 8 | 42 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| BUF | Q2 12:34 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NE | Q2 9:41 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–3 |
| BUF | Q2 7:32 | 7 | 47 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| NE | Q2 3:30 | 9 | 43 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| BUF | Q2 0:24 | 2 | 17 | Missed field goal | 14–3 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–3 |
| BUF | Q3 13:51 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–3 |
| NE | Q3 11:47 | 13 | 64 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| BUF | Q3 4:43 | 10 | 38 | Punt | 17–3 |
| NE | Q4 14:41 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–3 |
| BUF | Q4 13:14 | 4 | -20 | Punt | 17–3 |
| NE | Q4 11:31 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–3 |
| BUF | Q4 9:51 | 12 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 17–3 |
| NE | Q4 4:20 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 17–3 |
| BUF | Q4 3:37 | 2 | 28 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| NE | Q4 3:02 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 17–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 11/23 | 115 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 23 | 81 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Slater | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 5 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 4 | 11 | 40 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Sam Aiken | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 17/25 | 178 | 1 | 1 |
| Trent Edwards | 1/2 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reed | 4 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 3 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Shawn Nelson | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.18