Closing spread
NE -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.125
- 49.1%Success rate38.0%
- +0.223EPA / dropback-0.122
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.129
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +3.43CPOE-1.89
- 44.2%Third-down rate26.3%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
- 2.12Points / drive1.20
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 11/23 | 115 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 23 | 81 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Slater | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 5 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 4 | 11 | 40 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Sam Aiken | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 17/25 | 178 | 1 | 1 |
| Trent Edwards | 1/2 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reed | 4 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 3 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Shawn Nelson | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.18