Closing spread
HOU -9
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play+0.043
- 49.1%Success rate46.2%
- +0.223EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- +3.43CPOE+4.51
- 44.2%Third-down rate41.5%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 2.12Points / drive1.79
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. HOU are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 17/26 | 186 | 0 | 1 |
| Brian Hoyer | 8/12 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 2 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 10 | 15 | 103 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 5 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Sam Aiken | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 24/39 | 303 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 20 | 119 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Ryan Moats | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Dreessen | 6 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 6 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 5 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.44