2009 · Week 17

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

27·34

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -9

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapTexans
  • +0.118EPA / play+0.043
  • 49.1%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.223EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.149
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +3.43CPOE+4.51
  • 44.2%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.79
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–4 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. HOU are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–28NE
2024 · W6HOU @ NE41–21HOU
2021 · W5NE @ HOU25–22NE
2020 · W11NE @ HOU20–27HOU
2019 · W13NE @ HOU22–28HOU
2018 · W1HOU @ NE20–27NE
2017 · W3HOU @ NE33–36NE
2016 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00776Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 11:19733Punt0–7
HOUQ1 7:0537Punt0–7
NEQ1 5:29963Touchdown7–7
HOUQ1 0:50416Punt7–7
NEQ2 14:38953Field goal10–7
HOUQ2 9:511068Turnover on downs10–13
NEQ2 4:451-1Opp touchdown10–13
NEQ2 4:411051Field goal13–13
HOUQ2 0:46442Missed field goal13–13
NEQ3 15:00512Punt13–13
HOUQ3 12:51969Opp touchdown20–13
HOUQ3 7:43953Missed field goal20–13
NEQ3 2:57971Touchdown27–13
HOUQ4 14:04948Touchdown27–20
NEQ4 9:4132Punt27–20
HOUQ4 7:30734Touchdown27–27
NEQ4 4:432-4Turnover27–27
HOUQ4 3:49428Touchdown27–34
NEQ4 1:54937Turnover on downs27–34
HOUQ4 0:1400End of half27–34

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady17/2618601
Brian Hoyer8/127100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor7334.72
BenJarvus Green-Ellis4225.50
Brian Hoyer11010.00
Sammy Morris791.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman10151030
Randy Moss56750
Benjamin Watson36320
Sammy Morris33130
Chris Baker11130
Wes Welker12120
Sam Aiken2590

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub24/3930321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster201196.02
Ryan Moats4174.30
Andre Johnson177.00
Matt Schaub210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joel Dreessen67811
Andre Johnson69650
Jacoby Jones56651
Kevin Walter23300
Arian Foster34260
Andre Davis12100
Chris Brown0100
Ryan Moats0100
David Anderson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +92.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.44