2009 · WC

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

33·14

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 20°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapPatriots
  • +0.058EPA / play+0.118
  • 44.3%Success rate49.1%
  • +0.078EPA / dropback+0.223
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.033
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +2.29CPOE+3.43
  • 41.4%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.12
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16NE @ BAL28–24NE
2022 · W3BAL @ NE37–26BAL
2020 · W10BAL @ NE17–23NE
2019 · W9NE @ BAL20–37BAL
2016 · W14BAL @ NE23–30NE
2014 · playoffsBAL @ NE31–35NE
2013 · W16NE @ BAL41–7NE
2012 · playoffsBAL @ NE28–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NE
BALQ1 15:00183Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 14:433-10Turnover7–0
BALQ1 13:13517Touchdown14–0
NEQ1 10:2932Punt14–0
BALQ1 8:583-1Punt14–0
NEQ1 8:10411Turnover14–0
BALQ1 6:49625Touchdown21–0
NEQ1 3:5524Turnover21–0
BALQ1 2:5630Field goal24–0
NEQ1 1:19517Punt24–0
NEQ2 14:08616Touchdown24–7
BALQ2 11:23410Turnover24–7
NEQ2 9:1438Punt24–7
BALQ2 7:3831Punt24–7
NEQ2 5:33713Punt24–7
BALQ2 2:07622End of half24–7
NEQ3 15:0033Punt24–7
BALQ3 13:1138Punt24–7
NEQ3 11:38430Turnover24–7
BALQ3 9:49518Field goal27–7
NEQ3 6:181148Touchdown27–14
BALQ3 1:471252Touchdown33–14
NEQ4 10:321041Missed field goal33–14
BALQ4 7:19836Punt33–14
NEQ4 2:07613Turnover on downs33–14
BALQ4 1:0900End of half33–14

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco4/103401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice221597.22
Willis McGahee20623.11
Joe Flacco650.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Clayton12170
Willis McGahee11130
Derrick Mason1380
Todd Heap0100
Demetrius Williams0100
Ray Rice0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/4215423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Faulk14523.70
Sammy Morris199.00
Laurence Maroney122.00
Fred Taylor210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss57480
Julian Edelman68442
Kevin Faulk68370
Sammy Morris36150
Sam Aiken1650
Benjamin Watson1430
Chris Baker1120
Laurence Maroney0100
Matthew Slater0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.82