2011 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

7·35

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 75°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

BAL -1

Total

37

Model margin

+2.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.041
  • 44.9%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.134EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.057
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +3.03CPOE-1.68
  • 45.1%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.79
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
BALQ1 15:00366Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 13:28515Punt0–7
BALQ1 10:53738Punt0–7
PITQ1 6:01517Turnover0–7
BALQ1 3:08437Touchdown0–14
PITQ1 1:491073Touchdown7–14
BALQ2 10:23524Punt7–14
PITQ2 8:113-1Punt7–14
BALQ2 7:041389Touchdown7–21
PITQ2 1:4839Punt7–21
BALQ2 1:02311End of half7–21
PITQ3 15:001-6Turnover7–27
BALQ3 14:48118Touchdown7–29
PITQ3 14:3910Turnover7–29
BALQ3 14:3349Turnover on downs7–29
PITQ3 13:00978Turnover7–29
BALQ3 7:25966Field goal7–32
PITQ3 2:5030Punt7–32
BALQ3 2:2564Punt7–32
PITQ4 13:57645Turnover7–32
BALQ4 10:5547Punt7–32
PITQ4 8:45445Turnover7–32
BALQ4 7:1539Punt7–32
PITQ4 4:574-8Turnover7–32
BALQ4 4:0147Field goal7–35
PITQ4 1:56845Turnover on downs7–35

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/4128013

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall12453.80
Isaac Redman3124.00
Ben Roethlisberger199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace8111070
Hines Ward59670
Heath Miller35420
Mewelde Moore22300
Emmanuel Sanders23201
Antonio Brown29140
Arnaz Battle0100
Rashard Mendenhall0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco17/2922430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice191075.61
Ricky Williams12635.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin47741
Ed Dickson55591
Dennis Pitta22450
Ray Rice45421
Ricky Williams1240
Lee Evans0400
Torrey Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.42