Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
37
Model margin
+2.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.041
- 44.9%Success rate41.6%
- +0.134EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.057
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.03CPOE-1.68
- 45.1%Third-down rate42.5%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.78Points / drive1.79
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/41 | 280 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 8 | 11 | 107 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 5 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 9 | 14 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/29 | 224 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 19 | 107 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 7 | 74 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 5 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Dennis Pitta | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 4 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.42