2011 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

13·16

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

45

Model margin

-2.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.046EPA / play-0.107
  • 43.6%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.164
  • 9.6%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +1.80CPOE-1.20
  • 45.0%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.39
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
ATLQ1 15:003-10Turnover0–0
TBQ1 13:57213Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 12:33616Punt0–0
TBQ1 9:5234Punt0–0
ATLQ1 7:4964Punt0–0
TBQ1 4:42832Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 1:191084Field goal3–3
TBQ2 11:101385Touchdown3–10
ATLQ2 3:372-11Turnover3–10
TBQ2 3:2536Field goal3–13
ATLQ2 1:56858Turnover3–13
TBQ2 0:0500End of half3–13
TBQ3 15:001555Field goal3–16
ATLQ3 6:501042Punt3–16
TBQ3 3:07738Turnover3–16
ATLQ4 14:50641Turnover on downs3–16
TBQ4 12:5139Punt3–16
ATLQ4 10:38259Touchdown10–16
TBQ4 9:55420Punt10–16
ATLQ4 7:461442Field goal13–16
TBQ4 4:06636End of half13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan26/4733011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner11201.80
Matt Ryan11212.00
Jacquizz Rodgers273.50
Julio Jones1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White9171400
Julio Jones671150
Harry Douglas57350
Jacquizz Rodgers23190
Tony Gonzalez28181
Michael Palmer0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman22/3218002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount24813.40
Josh Freeman10353.51
Earnest Graham2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams58430
Earnest Graham78370
Luke Stocker22330
Kellen Winslow25200
Arrelious Benn34190
LeGarrette Blount13130
Preston Parker11110
Kregg Lumpkin1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.2%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.58