2011 · Week 3 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
45
Model margin
-2.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play-0.107
- 43.6%Success rate43.0%
- +0.130EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.164
- 9.6%Explosive rate6.3%
- +1.80CPOE-1.20
- 45.0%Third-down rate37.0%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.86Points / drive1.39
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/47 | 330 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 9 | 17 | 140 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 6 | 7 | 115 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 5 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 2 | 8 | 18 | 1 |
| Michael Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 22/32 | 180 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 24 | 81 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Earnest Graham | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 7 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.2%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.58